It is that time of year again. SHOT Show is right around the corner, and as we roll into 2026, the firearms industry is once again getting ready to descend on Las Vegas with new products, revised designs, and the occasional genuinely interesting idea. Every year, I try to approach SHOT Show with a mix of realism and optimism. There are things we know are coming, things we hope are coming, and things that probably will not show up yet but feel close enough that they are worth talking about.
This article is not a prediction based on insider information. It is based on industry trends, past SHOT Shows, conversations with manufacturers, and what makes sense given where the market currently sits. Some of these expectations will pan out, some will not, and a few might surprise us entirely. That is part of what makes SHOT Show worth paying attention to every year.
Let us break this down into three categories. First, what I expect to see at SHOT Show 2026. Second, what I personally want to see this year. Third, the things I would love to see but realistically do not expect to show up yet.
What I Expect to See at SHOT Show 2026
Suppressors Everywhere Thanks to the Zero-Dollar Tax Stamp
One of the biggest drivers of what we will see at SHOT Show 2026 is the zero-dollar tax stamp for anything that is not a machine gun or a destructive device. That single change has reshaped the suppressor market almost overnight.
Because of that, I fully expect to see a flood of new suppressors at SHOT Show. Most of them will be 3D printed, and that is not a bad thing. Anyone who has followed my work knows that I am a big fan of modern additive manufacturing when it is done right. 3D printed suppressors allow for internal geometries that are nearly impossible to achieve through traditional machining. They also allow manufacturers to iterate quickly, refine designs, and offer modularity without ballooning production costs.
Expect to see more user-serviceable suppressors, more modular end caps, more caliber-flexible designs, and more cans designed specifically around durability rather than chasing the last decibel reduction on paper. Simplicity, strength, and realistic performance will be the dominant themes.
A New Caliber That Nobody Asked For But Everyone Will Talk About
Every year brings at least one new cartridge, and SHOT Show 2026 will be no different. Odds are high that it will land somewhere in the seven millimeter range and be marketed heavily toward hunters and long-range shooters. We saw this pattern continue with cartridges like the 7mm Backcountry, and there is no reason to think manufacturers are done chasing that segment.
I would not be surprised to see a new ultra-long-range precision cartridge marketed as the next evolution of Creedmoor. Whether it actually replaces anything remains to be seen, but it will certainly show up with glossy marketing materials, impressive ballistic charts, and a handful of rifles chambered for it at launch.
History tells us that most new calibers fade into obscurity, but that does not stop manufacturers from trying. SHOT Show is the perfect place to test interest and gauge whether something has legs.
Shotgun Suppressors Starting to Gain Traction
Shotgun suppressors are still a niche product, but I believe SHOT Show 2026 will show signs of growth in that category. We are likely to see a few manufacturers debut new designs for 12 gauge and possibly 20 gauge. The real limiting factor here is ammunition availability. Suppressing a shotgun effectively requires ammo designed with suppression in mind, and the ammo industry has been slow to embrace that idea.
If ammunition manufacturers begin releasing suppressor-friendly shotgun loads in larger quantities, that will open the door for more serious development in this space. I am cautiously optimistic, but it will take coordination between suppressor manufacturers and ammo companies to make this segment viable long-term.
Striker Fired Pistols That Look Familiar
When it comes to pistols, expect a wall of striker-fired handguns that look suspiciously similar to everything we have already seen. Glock has already released the Gen 6, and despite the hype cycle, it is essentially a refinement rather than a revolution.
There is nothing wrong with striker-fired pistols. They are reliable, consistent, and easy to manufacture at scale. The problem is that innovation in this category has slowed to a crawl. Most new releases are minor ergonomic tweaks, slide cuts, or optics-ready updates rather than fundamentally new ideas.
We will circle back to striker-fired pistols later when we talk about what I want to see happen in the future.
Incremental AR Market Changes
The AR market is mature, and it shows. I do not expect to see anything truly revolutionary in AR components at SHOT Show 2026. What we will see are small companies pushing mildly interesting ideas, much like last year’s bullpup lower concepts.
Palmetto State Armory is always worth watching in this space. Their willingness to experiment and bring concepts to market sets them apart from many larger manufacturers. Their bullpup lower for the JAKL is a good example of taking an idea that seemed fringe and making it accessible.
I do not have a specific prediction for what Palmetto State will unveil this year, but I fully expect it to be something unconventional, affordable, and targeted directly at consumer interest rather than industry trends.
FN and the Inevitable SCAR Reimagining
FN is guaranteed to drop something new, and my money is on another iteration of the SCAR platform. They “dropped” the line toward the end of last year. I believe there will be a “new” SCAR 16 and 17 to be released with suppressors that are designed and paired for the new rifles.
If that happens, expect a rifle that looks a little different, feels somewhat different, and performs almost exactly the same. That may sound cynical, but it is also realistic.
What I Want to See at SHOT Show 2026
More Lever Actions With Modern Features
Lever-action rifles are experiencing a resurgence, and I am here for it. What I want to see more of are short-barreled, threaded lever guns designed from the ground up for suppressor use. Not retrofits. Not limited runs. Actual production rifles that embrace modern manufacturing while keeping the lever-action soul intact.
A short-barreled, factory-threaded lever action with quality sights and modern mounting options would sell extremely well. The demand is already there.
More Threaded 1911 Style Pistols
The 1911 is far from dead, and I would love to see more manufacturers offering threaded barrel options from the factory. Suppressor use with 1911-style pistols is fantastic when done right, but too often it requires aftermarket work that should not be necessary.
Give us reliable, suppressor-ready 1911s without turning them into boutique collector pieces.
Better 5.56 Suppression Without Subsonics
This one borders on wishful thinking, but I would love to see meaningful improvements in 5.56 sound suppression without relying on subsonic ammunition. Whether through advanced baffle geometry, flow management, or entirely new design philosophies, this is an area where true innovation could change the industry.
Artificial intelligence-driven design tools may help here, but we are still a long way from magic solutions. Still, this is the kind of problem worth trying to solve.
Products Designed for Range Owners
As a range owner, I want to see more products designed specifically for range use. Caldwell’s flying disc concept was interesting, but logistics matter. Clay pigeons are accessible and affordable. Proprietary targets are not.
If someone can create an engaging target system that works with standard clay pigeons and does not require specialized supply chains, that would be a win.
What I Want to See But Do Not Expect in 2026
Truly Modular Pistol Systems
I want to see more pistols built around serialized fire control groups like the P320 and P365. The ability to swap grips, slides, barrels, and configurations without buying an entirely new firearm is consumer-friendly and encourages innovation.
Right now, only Sig Sauer and Springfield Armory with the Echelon are doing this at scale. I want to see more manufacturers embrace that approach and open the door for third-party development.
Lower Ammunition Prices
Everyone wants cheaper ammo, but realistic factors make that unlikely in 2026. Trade policies, consolidation, and overseas ownership all work against rapid price drops. If prices dip, it will likely be temporary, and consumers should act quickly.
True Industry Stopping Innovation
More than anything, I want to see a firearm that makes the entire industry stop and say, where has this been all my life. Not a reimagining. Not a clone. Something genuinely new.
It is possible, but it is rare. I hope someone proves me wrong.
Final Thoughts
SHOT Show 2026 will be exciting, but not because of one single product. It will be exciting because it reflects where the industry is heading. Suppressors are becoming normal. Modularity is becoming expected. Consumers are more educated and less tolerant of recycled ideas.
I am looking forward to seeing what manufacturers bring to the table, and I hope you will follow along with us as we cover SHOT Show across the site and on our newest YouTube channel at youtube.com/gearsofguns2.
Leave a comment and let us know what you want to see at SHOT Show 2026 and beyond.
Pingback: Assorted Calibers Podcast Ep 378: the pre-SHOT Show Round Table | Weer'd World